MARCH 28 STANDOFF: Who Is Leading, GEJ Or GMB?


As the election dates draws near, it is almost impossible to believe that there are other political parties vying for the several political office in Nigeria. Nigerians, and indeed, the world, has been treated to all manner of political manoeuvres by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressive Congress (APC) as each try to outplay the other in the field of politicking with little or no regard to the existence of any other political party. This has given rise to other political parties seeking allegiance with the two power horses as the elections draw near. But having said that, it is pertinent as this point to let you know that there are about 10 political parties contesting for the presidential seat alone. Surprised! Yes, and there are 28 political parties in Nigeria vying for different official positions across the nation.

Anyway, as we all wait for the March 28 presidential election, we have resigned to believing that it will be a two-horse race and as such we take a look at how the country will be divided in the political battle by the time the elections are done and dusted.

Let’s look at this analysis of the 36 states in the country, plus the Federal Capital Territory, and how the battle will be fought, won and lost.

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President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP will surely command the highest number of votes in Abia State because of several factors. The major reason will be that the state is a PDP state. The fact that the state governor, Theodore Orji is the Coordinator of Jonathan’s Campaign Organisation in the South-East zone is another factor. There is also the fact that the First Lady, Dame Patience Jonathan hails form Abia state. Moreover, most of the highly inflencial personalities in PDP hails from the state.

Verdict: Jonathan wins


Abuja is like going to be split between the President and Buhari. This is because the FCT Minister, Senator Bala Mohammed would be in his home state, Bauchi to vote and campaign for the President leaving the FCT in the hands of Senator Philip Aduda to campaign for the PDP. But APC will also boast of the presence of  Adamu Sidi-Ali, who apart from contesting for the senate is also a political opponent.

Verdict: Tight race.


This state would have been won by the PDP, but for the Boko Haram insurgence and the fact that ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar who is of the APC hails from that axis.  But former Chairman of the PDP, Bamanga Tukur also hails from there so they will want to make a point. The PDP won the state in 2011 but indigines are not happy with the president despite the success of the war on Boko Haram because they feel he left it a little late.

Verdict: Tight race.

Akwa Ibom

Governor Godswill Akpabio who is an ardent loyalist of Jonathan is expected to deliver the state to PDP but not without a fight especially as former governor, Victor Attah, who is a PDP member has thrown weight behind the APC candidate, Ime Okon Umanah.

It will be a close call, however, the President should win this state because it is a south-south state.

Verdict: Jonathan wins

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From the statistics, this state gave Jonathan the highest proportion of votes in 2011, 98.8 per cent of the total votes cast. The situation on does not seem to have changed much as Jonathan still has an edge over Buhari and will very likely win the presidential election in the state. The party in power in the state, the All Progressives Grand Alliance, has also adopted Jonathan as its presidential candidate.

Verdict: Jonathan wins


The National Chairman of the PDP, Adamu Mu’azu, the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Bala Mohammed and Governor Isa Yuguda, who all hail from this state would do a good job for the President if they resolve their differences and work together. However, this is a muslim state and Buhari’s popularity among the ordinary folk in the state is unlikely to wane before the March 28 election.

Verdict: Buhari wins.


In Bayelsa, the home state of President Jonathan, it is almost a taboo to mention any other political party except the PDP.

The emergence of the rival opposition political party, the APC, has yet to change the people’s perception about the PDP. Also, the APC has yet to entrench itself as a formidable party in the state. Observers believe that in Bayelsa, the general election is fait accompli for the PDP as the party has formidable structures in the state compared to the APC and other political parties.

Verdict: Jonathan wins


Benue state is a PDP controlled state and Senate President David Mark will want to make a good showing in his state. The PDP should have won with a landslide but may not because the people of the state complain endlessly of non-payment of salaries. And since the state has a high dominance of civil servants in the elite class, having the same civil servants complaining is not good for such administration.

Verdict: Jonathan wins

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Buhari has always won in this state since the first day he declared his ambition to contest the presidency of Nigeria in 2007. He is idolised by the people of the state, which started when he was the military governor in Maiduguri, which was the then capital of the North-East state and it can even been said that he is more loved in the state than in Katsina, which is his home state because he lost there to Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007.

Verdict: Buhari wins

Cross River

Cross River State is controlled by the PDP. Both in the National Legislature and State Assembly, it is 100% PDP. and it extends to the Local Government levels where the PDP controls almost all the Local Government Councils.

This will account for much as long as the PDP is concerned in the forthcoming elections.

Verdict: Jonathan wins


One factor favoring the President in Delta state is that he is from the South-South geopolitical zone and Deltans will always vote their own. President Jonathan stands head and shoulders above his closest rival, Buhari. Besides, Delata State is also a PDP state.

Verdict: Jonathan wins


This is a PDP state but the impeachment process instituted against the governor, Martins Elechi, would have great sabotaged Jonathan’s re-election campaign in the state. But however, with the impeachment process finally shelved, the PDP can be rest assured of victory in the state.

Verdict: Jonathan wins

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Since the inception of the opposition party, Buhari has become seemingly popular across the state, compared to 2003, 2007 and 2011 presidential elections, where his campaigns were more pronounced in Auchi, an area largely dominated by Muslims. The Chairman of the APC, John Odigie-Oyegun, who is from the state will want to prove that he is a chairman indeed despite the political sagacity of Chief Tony Anenih who is a force to reckon with.

PDP was defeated in the state in the 2007 and 2012 governorship elections. Also, Governor Adams Oshiomhole has a large following and can swing votes Buhari’s way.

Verdict: Buhari wins


Even though Governor Ayodele Fayose is of the PDP,  has continued to enjoy the support of the grassroots, and is an ardent supporter of the Jonathan second term agenda, the opposition seems to be gathering momentum especially with the return of the governorship candidate of the Labour Party, Opeyemi Bamidele, to the APC.

Bamidele who declared support for Buhari has deployed his political platform, the Ekiti Bibire Coalition, for the mission. It is a common trend to see people shouting ‘Sai Buhari’ on the streets Ekiti State.

Verdict: Tight race


Sullivan Chime-led Enugu state has been routed for President Goodluck Jonathan.There is hardly any prominent politician that is campaigning against Jonathan in Enugu at the moment and these include Governor Sullivan Chime, Deputy Senate President Ike Ekweremadu, former Senate President Ken Nnamani, and a former governor of old Anambra State, Chief Jim Nwobodo, among several others. It is believe that the President will get 80% of the votes in Enugu state.

Verdict: Jonathan wins


This is likely to be one of the most keenly contested states in the North because just as General Buhari, enjoys a large following, the state Governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo, the Minister of Transportation, Senator Idris Umar and the Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the ruling PDP, Abdullahi Jalo, who are ardent supporters of President Jonathan, have a point to prove. They will be up against a former governor of the state, Senator Danjuma Goje who is a stalwart of the APC.

Verdict: Tight race

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Imo state in Nigeria is the only South-Eastern state governed by the APC. Its governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha has endeared himself to the people and will do every thing to win the state for his party. But like other South-Eastern states, Imo is likely to be won by Jonathan because, Ohaneze Ndigbo, the main Igbo socio-cultural group has publicly adopted him as their presidential candidate in the forthcoming elections.

Verdict: Jonathan wins


Jigawa state is ruled by PDP unde the leadership of Gov. Sule Lamido. And although that is the case, it would not be difficult for Buhari to coast home with victory in the state. The governor will do everything not to disappoint the President and as a founding member of the PDP, he has a point to prove.

Verdict: Tight race


Buhari won the state with 1.3 million votes in 2011 and when the PDP Presidential Campaign Train visited Kaduna State on January 31, 2015, the main bowl of the Ahmadu Bello Stadium, was half-filled indicating that even though the Vice-President Namadi Sambo, hails from these parts, he may not be able to deliver the state which is something the President expects him to do. However, Kaduna state is between the divided muslims in the north and Christians in the south which have consistently voted for the PDP since 1999.

Verdict: Buhari wins


Most of the eligible voters in Kano are ardent supperters of Buhari.  the defection of Kano State governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso, from the PDP to the APC is one point in hand as to the political situation on ground. there is also the fact that a majority of members of the National Assembly members are members of the APC. The emergence of Lamido Sanusi Lamido as the Emir of Kano seemed to have sealed Jonathan’s fate.

Verdict: Buhari wins

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There is no need to bother on the analysis. This is the Buhari’s home town. And although Kastina is currently ruled by the PDP, Charity, they say, begins at home. Of all the times Buhari has contested the elections, he has lost in Kastina just once. That was in 2007 when he contested with Yar’adua,, who himself was another son of the soil. That did not happen in 2011 and we do not expect it to happen in 2015 either.

Verdict: Buhari wins


Even though the state is presently a PDP state,  which has swept most parts of the North is unlikely to change there.

Verdict: Buhari wins


Kogi State has been a strong hold for the PDP, which have ruled it for 16 years. Ordinarily, Jonathan should not have a problem winning here, but the recent defection of some PDP chieftains in the state to the opposition, makes a difficult case in hand for the PDP. Also, the Buhari phenomenon in the north is gradually rubbing off here since Kogi State is bounded with Abuja.

Verdict: Tight race


The PDP had lost the Kwara State to the APC following the defection of former Governor Bukola Saraki and his followers. Those who defected with him to the APC included another former governor and who is also now a senator, Mr. Shaaba Lafiagi; all the members of the House of Representatives, the current state governor, Mr. Abdulfatah Ahmed and his political appointees; the Speaker, Kwara State House of Assembly and 19 other legislators.

Verdict: Buhari wins