Professor Allan Lichtman, a political historian at the American University in Washington, has predicted a short-lived presidential tenure for US President-elect, saying there’s a very good chance that Donald Trump could face impeachment.
Prof. Lichtman who has correctly predicted presidential poll outcomes for the last 30 years including Trump’s victory says his prediction was based on a ‘gut feeling’ rather than the scientific methods he employed in predicting Trump’s election victory.
According to Lichtman, Trump’s history of playing “fast and loose with the law,” his unpredictability as well as his lack of public service experience could lead to an impeachment.
Allan Lichtman says though Republicans have won the majority in Congress, they did not have a “filibuster-proof majority” in the Senate.
In his words; “Republicans love control and they would love to see Mike Pence as president because he is predictable and controllable – a down-the-pipe standard conservative Republican.”
In trying to fill out key posts in his cabinet, Trump appointed the former president of Breitbart News, Steve Bannon, as his chief strategist and senior counselor and has since faced serious backlash.
Litchman says Trump’s appointment of controversial figures like Bannon and his unpredictability could make it more difficult for the Republicans to work with Democrats and other members of the Congress.
He says Trump is a wild card and Bannon’s appointment would be a litmus test for the President-elect to either jettison him or stick with him no matter how controversial he became.
Lichtman bases his presidential election predictions on history. In an interview in October, he explained that he looked at 13 “keys” he developed by studying every election from 1860 to 1980 and then applied it to the next eight elections.
The way his method worked was if six or more “keys” went against the incumbent party at the White House, its candidate would likely lose the election.
Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton are the only two presidents who have ever been involved in formal impeachment trials by the Senate.